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Monday, April 13, 2020

Disconnect between physical and paper gold prices in full swing

With the economic slowdown (some may say collapse) entering its second month, few asset classes are coming out unscathed in the financial destruction.  Yet as expected, the single commodity that is exploding upward is of course gold.

But with this in mind there is an even bigger scenario in play beyond simply the price of gold going up, and that is not only the disconnect between physical and paper gold, but also between the futures price and the spot price.

April 13 2020:  Gold prices for paper and physical

Spot Price: $1716



Futures Price:  $1761



Physical Price:  $1864


As you can see, there is nearly a $50 difference ($45) between the current spot price and the June futures price, and a $100 (Futures) and $150 (Spot) premium between the physical and paper prices.

As the demand for gold continues to accelerate, the disconnect between the paper and physical markets will only increase.  And it is now likely that the physical price will surpass its all-time high in dollar terms long before the end of the year.