2:06 PM
bonds, dollar, home sales, marijuana, pot sales, savings, stocks, thedailyeconomist, yuan denominated oil contract
No Comments
Financial news and economic items of interest
Is the return of Israel in the 20th century truly a work of God, or is it a result of a cosmic chess move to deceive the elect by the adversary?
Mohammad Javad Azari-Jahromi, Iran’s information, and communications technology minister said the experimental cryptocurrency is now ready, ahead of a possible return of U.S. economic sanctions.
The Iranian cryptocurrency was jointly developed by the CBI, the state-run Post Bank, and Iran’s Information and Communications Technology (ICT) ministry.
“Last week in a joint meeting aimed at exploring the progress of the project, it was announced that the experimental model is ready,” Azari-Jahromi said, as reported by state news agency IRNA.
Azari Jahromi previously said the experimental Iranian cryptocurrency would be backed by assets, in the same way that gold allegedly supports the Malaysian cryptocurrency GoldX.
When asked if Iran is developing its own cryptocurrency to circumvent U.S economic sanctions, Azari-Jahromi replied coyly, “All cryptocurrencies are capable of circumventing sanctions because they are not under the supervision of the U.S. financial regulatory body, and the national digital currencies are naturally capable of this.” – BTC Manager
UNICEF Australia wants you to fund its charitable missions using your computer’s processing power.
The UN program that provides humanitarian and developmental assistance to children and mothers in developing nations has now launched The Hope Page, which allows the users to donate to its cause by mining cryptocurrency.
The Hope Page uses Coinhive’s opt-in version that gives the users an option to mine Monero for the website they are visiting.
When you’re on Hope Page, your web browser uses your computer’s processor to solve cryptocurrency algorithms. You can select how much processor power you want to donate to this task — between 20 to 80 percent. – The Next Web
For nearly 100 years, Oscar Mayer has set the gold standard of bacon by providing a superior quality, great-tasting product that cooks up perfectly every time. Now Oscar Mayer is paving the way in the burgeoning cryptocurrency landscape by introducing Bacoin, the first-ever cryptocurrency backed by the gold standard of Oscar Mayer Bacon.
Similar to other cryptocurrencies, the value of Bacoin can be volatile. However, Bacoin stands out by the fact that Bacon lovers can boost value by spreading the news via Twitter and email on OscarMayerBacoin.com. The more they share, the greater Bacoin is worth. When ready, Bacoin owners can select the best time to cash out and receive real packs of Oscar Mayer Bacon. For more details on how Bacoin works, check out this video from the architect of Bacoin, Keith Sizzle. - WLNS
Even though bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may seem exotic, they share some qualities with regular currency. Here are a few ways that bitcoin is like the cash you know, whether in principle or in practice.
1. No Intrinsic Value
Economists Aleksander Berentsen and Fabian Schär explained in a recent St. Louis Fed Review article that bitcoin units have no intrinsic value. In economic terms, something lacking intrinsic value means it has no value of its own. But as the authors noted, “[s]tate monopoly currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the Swiss franc, have no intrinsic value either.” – St. Louis FedIronically, no currency in the world has any real intrinsic value, and relies solely upon the ability of a government to enforce, coerce, or dupe people into believing that it can act in the stead of real money.
It's been a while since the US made a wholesale push to get more cash and income-strapped households into the ever more unaffordable American dream of owning a house, three years to be exact, which is when nationalized housing agency Freddie Mac last rolled out a conventional mortgage that only required a 3% down payment for certain borrowers.
The problem is that what modest requirement the mortgage program had back in 2015, meant that most Americans who needed access would be excluded. The program, which as we described at the time was designed for qualified (that being the key word) low-and moderate-income borrowers - i.e., Millennials - saw limited progress over the last few years, with FHFA Director Mel Watt telling Congress last year that Freddie’s 3% down program (along with a similar one from Fannie Mae) was continuing to grow.
It just wasn't growing fast enough, because while putting 3% down may not have been especially challenging for most Americans, having even the modest income required to go along with it, was.
So fast forward to last week, when Freddie Mac announced on Thursday it was about to supercharge its 3% down program and launch a widespread expansion of the offering, when it announced that it is rolling out a new conventional 3% down payment option for qualified first-time homebuyers, - effectively the same as the 2015 program... with one small difference: there would be no geographic restrictions; more importantly there no longer will be any income restrictions. - Zerohedge
In an ICO, coins or tokens are put up for sale as a form of crowdfunding. Instead of voting rights or dividends that come with shares of a company, "utility tokens" promise access to a network, platform or service. But they're often backed by an abstract idea, or nothing at all.
The process has facilitated the rise of cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, a Shiba Inu dog meme-turned-cryptocurrency that has a passionate following on sites such as Reddit. Whoppercoin, Pandacoin, Trumpcoin and PutinCoin have also raised money through initial coin offerings.
Similarly, in a security token offering, you can buy coins or tokens. But unlike in many ICOs, these tokens must be backed by something tangible, such as assets, profits or revenue of the company. They act almost exactly like a share of a company but are "programmable," to do things like conduct proxy voting, because they're built on blockchain technology, according to one expert.
"You can program a token, but a static share certificate just sits there and collects dust," said Trevor Koverko, CEO of Polymath, a platform that helps people launch securities tokens. - CNBCSadly for investors, this program seems like a virtual scam since if a company already provides dividends to owners of their primary stock, then adding in a token process will only dilute those proceeds. And if a company does not have a dividend program, then they risk investors simply bypassing the purchasing of their shares in order to benefit from dividends paid to token holders only.
The U.S. gold exports to Hong Kong surged in February consuming nearly all of the domestic gold mine supply. According to the USGS recent Gold Mineral Industry Survey, February gold exports to Hong Kong more than doubled compared to the prior month. This was an interesting increase in gold demand from Hong Kong as the market price increased slightly month over month.
Not only did gold exports to Hong Kong jump, but total U.S. gold exports also increased 40% from 36.1 metric tons (mt) in January to 50.4 mt in February. The top three countries that received the majority of U.S. gold exports were Hong Kong (15.5 mt), the United Kingdom (12.1 mt) and Switzerland (11.7 mt). – SRS Rocco via Silver DoctorsPerhaps the biggest irony in all of this is that a Congressman from West Virginia has submitted a bill to once again back our currency with physical gold, but if we are shipping it offshore as fast as we mine it, how would we have any gold to back this legislation?
The recent surge in oil prices is poised to boost global assets as crude-producing states deploy replenished stashes of petrodollars, according to a growing chorus of analysts.
It’s the potential reversal of part of the global "quantitative tightening" that was said to have occurred as oil prices dropped precipitously, and could amount to an extra shot of liquidity at a time when central banks are beginning to normalize monetary policy.
"The increase in oil prices is generating a shift in flows and incomes across the world, effectively reversing the previous big shift seen between 2014 and 2016," wrote JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. They estimate that energy producers stretching from the Middle East to Norway saw their oil-related revenues plunge from $1.6 trillion in 2014 -- when crude reached $115/bbl -- to less than $800 billion in 2016, when it fell to $27.
The drop in oil-related proceeds roiled global markets by cutting off producers’ demand for imported goods and curtailing the ability of big sovereign wealth funds and central banks to buy foreign assets. Those funds and FX reserve managers may have purchased $160 billion less in public stocks and $80 billion less of bonds as a result of the slump in crude during the two year-period, JPMorgan said in research published on April 20. – World OilWith central banks having to switch over from Quantitative Easing to Quantitative Tightening due to the fact that half a decade of lower oil prices have forced them to have to print tens of trillions of dollars to sustain a modicum of liquidity to stave off deflation, markets are cheering the return of higher oil while at the same time it becomes a Damocles Sword over consumers who are fully tapped out, and in more debt today than during the 2008 financial crisis.
Barring an unforeseen event, the 17 millionth bitcoin is likely to be mined in the coming day, data from Blockchain.info shows, a development that would mark yet another milestone for the world's first cryptocurrency. That's because as per bitcoin's current rules, only 21 million bitcoin can ever be created.
Stepping back, the milestone, the first million-bitcoin marker to be crossed since mid-2016, is perhaps noteworthy as yet another reminder of the technology's core computer science achievement - digital scarcity created and enabled by shared software. – Coin DeskHowever as noted above, an article we published just a few days ago shows that Bitcoin miners now need a minimum of $8600 per coin just to break even. And with each subsequent coin being harder and harder to mine, this break even cost will only get higher.
When gold prices are high, major mining companies scramble for new discoveries.
Eventually when they start mining those deposits, though, the supply of gold increases, pushing prices down.
As the price falls, the miners’ profit margins fall, which causes investors to lose interest and the miners to reduce production.
This causes supply to fall, prices to increase, and the cycle starts all over again.
In a way it’s almost comical. And that brings us to today. Well, technically yesterday.
We’ve been seeing for more than a year that interest rates have been rising.
Yesterday afternoon the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note surpassed 3% for the first time since 2014.
And oil prices have been rising steadily as well.
Financial markets don’t like this combination– it means that inflation is coming. Big time. And stocks plummeted worldwide as a result.
Now, that immediate reaction was probably a bit too panicky.
But the deep concern that inflation is coming (or has already arrived) is completely valid.
Inflation is a HUGE problem. And the traditional hedge in times of inflation is GOLD.
But remember– new gold discoveries have collapsed in the past 15 years.
And, as Lassonde said above, there are few discoveries on the horizon to make up the difference. – Sovereign Man
With high-profile champions such as Richard Branson, Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, backing the idea of governments giving non-working people money (from working people) to do nothing - what could go wrong?
Well, two years after enthusiastically beginning its experiment with a universal basic income - in which people are paid an unconditional salary by the state instead of benefits - Finland is abandoning the project as government enthusiasm wanes and additional funding requests are rejected.
Proponents argue that:
- The lack of expensive means-testing leads to a higher proportion of the budget going to recipients. This would be more efficient
- The transparency of universal payments would drastically reduce the need to detect benefits fraud
- One scheme could replace the current complex arrangement of government benefits, rebates and tax rebates
Critics argue that:
- Work will always benefit recipients of this welfare, rather than the ‘benefits trap’ that leaves part-time workers
- Universal income may be inflationary and, in attempting to move all individuals out of poverty, it may simply raise the level of the poverty line
- It may reduce the incentive to work and studies have found some evidence to support this
- A reduction in taxable income would reduce the government’s ability to cover other expenses, such as healthcare - Zerohedge
Once the space matures, Nasdaq is open to becoming a platform for trading cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, according to the company's CEO.
"Certainly Nasdaq would consider becoming a crypto exchange over time," Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman told CNBC's Squawk BoxWednesday. "If we do look at it and say 'it's time, people are ready for a more regulated market,' for something that provides a fair experience for investors." - CNBCNasdaq's pursuit of becoming a major hub for crypto trading follows recent commentary made by officials at the New York Stock Exchange who said that more Americans trust in Bitcoin than they do in the Federal Reserve.
No obvious catalyst for the big drop this morning - aside from perhaps Chinese police seizing mining equipment in Tianjin - but Bitcoin Cash is plunging and Bitcoin is back below $9,000 as the entire crypto space is getting hit... - Zerohedge
The bitcoin price has surged to $9,200 over the past 24 hours by recording an increase of around $400. It successfully maintained its momentum in the $9,000 region, which investors perceive as an important level that could lead the bitcoin price to enter the $10,000 in the short-term.
Today, on April 24, some of the best performing altcoins include ICON (ICX), Ethos (BQX), EOS, and Kyber Network (KNC). All of these ERC20 tokens have recorded more than 10 percent gains against bitcoin which also recorded a solid gain of its own at around 3 percent.
ICON’s daily trading volume has reached 15,500 BTC, with around 50 percent of that coming from the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance and the other 50 percent from South Korean cryptocurrency trading platforms Bithumb and Upbit. - CCN
Local company Macau Quantum Gold Blockchain Technology Limited announced this Tuesday that it has entered into an agreement with two Chinese mining groups to back its gold-value based cryptocurrency.
The company registered in the Macau SAR last year developed and issued a cryptocurrency named ‘Quantum Gold Token’ (QTG Token), with the token value being backed by physical gold reserves. Shanghai-based mining group Zenda Gold Mining Co. was described as the largest partner, with the second being a smaller private company. Both companies manage mines in Africa.
“Every time we get a mine partner our value will go up. We are not targeting an explosive increase; we are aiming at a stable price […]. In the future we will be able to collaborate with other gold industries such as jewellery” the company founder, Steve Pang, told Macau News Agency (MNA). – Macau Business
The cryptocurrency market is hot again after more than three months of losses. The rally leader is bitcoin cash, which has more than doubled in price in April.
The reason for the rise of bitcoin cash is reportedly that one of the largest mining groups, Antpool, has been “burning” the bitcoin cash coins it created to solve the mathematical problems in the network and also cut the supply, thus propping up the price.
"Antpool has burned $12 worth” of bitcoin cash a day, Kyle Samani, managing partner at crypto hedge fund Multicoin Capital told Bloomberg. "This was purely a PR game so they could say ‘reducing supply.’”
Another analyst says that it is hard to keep up projects such as bitcoin cash, and miners are burning the crypto-cash just to keep it going. – Russia Today
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has approved a draft interim agreement establishing free-trade zone between the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and Iran.
The corresponding order was published on Tuesday on the website of the Russian government. The agreement provides for the formation of a free-trade zone for certain goods and is subject to ratification, as it contains rules different from those stipulated by the Russian law.
Talks between the two countries on a free-trade deal started three years ago but were repeatedly postponed. According to Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak, who is also co-head of the Russian-Iranian Intergovernmental Commission, the agreement “will obviously trigger further development of our bilateral trade and expansion of investment cooperation.” – Russia TodayWith Iran, Qatar, and Venezuela all conducting oil trading outside the dollar, and Saudi Arabia on the cusp of being willing to sell their oil to China in Yuan rather than the global reserve, the next big step towards ending the Petrodollar system appears to be in play as trade in goods and commodities outside of just energy is beginning to ramp up.
Today at $1,350, gold is as unloved and undervalued as it was when we bought in 2002 at $300. On an real inflation adjusted basis gold at $1,350 today is at the same level as in 2002. (see chart below) and also at a 300 year low. The 1980 gold peak at $850, adjusted for inflation, would be $16,450 in today’s money – 12x higher than currently. That price is more in line with our own targets.
Silver is even more undervalued. On the same inflation adjusted basis, silver is also at a 300 year low. At $17.20 today, inflation adjusted silver is the same as in 2000 at around $4. And the 1980 silver high of $50 would today be $761 – a 44x increase from here. - Silver Doctors
Four months after we reported that Goldman Sachs is preparing to launch a cryptocurrency trading desk, an announcement which coincided with bitcoin trading near its all time highs just shy of $20,000, the bank announced that in its first official expansion to this (r)evolutionary new venture, Goldman has hired Justin Schmidt as head of digital asset markets to help it navigate client interest in trading bitcoin and other crypto assets, and to allow clients gain exposure to cryptocurrencies.
Schmidt, 38, joined the securities division in New York as a VP and head of digital asset markets, said bank spokeswoman Tiffany Galvin-Cohen. He previously worked at quantitative trading firms Seven Eight Capital LLC and WorldQuant LLC and has computer science degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, according to his LinkedIn profile.- ZerohedgeGoldman already had exposure into cryptos as earlier this year they dipped their toes into the cryptocurrencies waters by having one of their partners (CIRCLE) enter into the sector as a cryptocurrency exchange.
As part of its years-long effort to reduce reliance on US currency amid a deepening standoff with Washington, Tehran has announced it will start reporting foreign currency amounts in euros rather than dollars.
The governor of Iran’s central bank (CBI) Valiollah Seif said that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had welcomed his suggestion of replacing the dollar with the euro in foreign trade, as the “dollar has no place in our transactions today.” The new policy could reportedly encourage government bodies and firms linked to the state to increase their use of the euro at the expense of the American currency.
France will start offering euro-denominated credits to Iranian buyers of its goods later this year to keep its trade out of the reach of US sanctions, said the head of state-owned French investment bank Bpifrance. – Russia TodayIran is the third nation to either fully or in part remove itself from the long-standing Petrodollar system. And as America's influence in the Middle East continues to wane, coupled with China's new Yuan-denominated oil futures market, it is only a matter of time before the Petrodollar standard completely ceases to exist, and the U.S. loses its ability to use dollar hegemony as a weapon in its foreign policies.
Mining bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is not as profitable as once thought, according to one team of analysts on the Street who views this as a negative headwind for the price of the volatile digital asset.
If bitcoin fails to break past $8,600 soon, analysts at Morgan Stanley expect cryptocurrency mining demand to fall significantly, weighing on component makers who have received a boost from the high-growth business amid the crypto frenzy, including Asian chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor
At a price of $8,507 at 4:37 p.m. UTC, BTC reflects an approximate 57% fall from highs reached near $20,000 in December, and a near 600% gain over the most recent 12 months. The digital coin's stellar run, compared to the benchmark S&P 500's 13.4% gain over a year, led many once on the sidelines to get into crypto investing due to fear of missing out on the next big thing in tech. While initial coin offerings (ICOs) in 2018 have already raked in more money than the entirety of last year, fears of heightened regulation on the red-hot cryptocurrency markets has put bitcoin's rally to a halt and drove a series of sell-offs this year. - InvestopediaOf course the cost of electricity and server farms to mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies isn't the only pitfall being seen for this industry. Accelerating taxation on local grids have even caused a few municipalities to ban mining rigs since it was causing the city to have to buy extra electricity at higher costs for their regular citizens.
This hasn't been the best week for WikiLeaks, to put it mildly. Coinbase has shut off the WikiLeaks Shop's account for allegedly violating the cryptocurrency exchange's terms of service. In other words, the leak site just lost its existing means of converting payments like bitcoin into conventional money. While Coinbase didn't give a specific reason (it declines to comment on specific accounts), it pointed to its legal requirement to honor "regulatory compliance mechanisms" under the US' Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.
This doesn't prevent WikiLeaks from accepting cryptocurrency, but it will have to scramble to find an alternative if it wants to continue taking digital money from customers buying shirts and coffee cups. Unsurprisingly, the organization is less than thrilled -- it's calling for a "global blockade" of Coinbase, claiming that the exchange is reacting to a "concealed influence." - EngadgetThe U.S. government has already put strong regulatory pressures on Coinbase to disclose trading activities on its exchange so that agencies such as the IRS can attempt to track down tax evaders. And of course the so-called 'War on Terror' allows the Feds to intercede in any business or operation under the guise that they might aiding in the facilitation of money laundering or 'funding terrorism'.
Bitcoin bulls are celebrating the virtues of the biggest cryptocurrency again.
The digital coin gained as much as 4 percent Friday, putting it on pace for its first back-to-back week of gains this year. The mini-rally is helping to ease the pain from the more than 50 percent loss in the first quarter that followed last year’s 1,400 percent surge.
The increase has bought the gains over the two-week period to almost 29 percent. Other crypto tokens rallied Friday, with Ripple jumping as much as 19 percent, Ethereum climbing 7.5 percent and Litecoin adding 4 percent. - BloombergWhat will be of interest in the coming days for Bitcoin is its price movement later in the week as the next CME Futures contract expiration comes due.
On 19 April 2018, Moscow Exchange signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The agreement aims to promote cooperation between China and Russia in the sphere of gold exchange trading.
The signing ceremony with Igor Marich, Managing Director of Money and Derivatives Markets, member of MOEX Executive Board, and Song Yuqin, Vice President of Shanghai Gold Exchange, took place as part of the third annual "Global Gold Market Summit 2018" in Xiamen (China) organized by SGE.
MOU provides for Russian and Chinese precious metals markets and exchange products information sharing, organization of joint conferences concerning topics of gold market, training and staff exchange as well as seeking opportunities for business cooperation.
Pursuing the provisions of the agreement on Cooperation in the sphere of gold exchange trading between the Central Bank of the Russian and the People’s Bank of China signed in September 2017 this MOU sets forth the next chapter in enhancing of cross-border gold exchange trading on Chinese and Russian financial markets and development of organized precious metals market. – Mondo Visione
Members of the European Parliament supported on Thursday an agreement reached with the European Council in December to bring cryptocurrencies under “closer regulation”. The decision was passed with 574 votes, 13 nays and 60 abstentions, the parliament’s press service announced. The agreement represents the fifth and latest update of the EU Anti-Money Laundering Directive.
The amendments are intended to address “risks linked to virtual currencies”. To end the anonymity associated with them, cryptocurrency trading platforms and custodian wallet providers will be obliged to introduce customer due diligence controls, including identity verification procedures. In the future, these businesses will apply for registration in order to offer regulated exchange and payment services. - Bitcoin
Ankara has decided to bring back all its gold stored in the US Federal Reserve, according to Turkish media. In recent years, Turkey repatriated 220 tons of gold from abroad, and 28.7 tons was brought back from the US last year.
Turkey’s gold reserves are estimated at 564 tons and are worth about $20 billion, Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak reported. This makes Ankara the 11th largest gold holder, behind the Netherlands and ahead of India. The reports come at a time when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken a tough stance against the US currency. – Russia TodayTurkey has also joined in with Iran and a handful of other countries looking to divest themselves from dollar hegemony, and may soon join with Russia in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) where direct bi-lateral trade is the standard for this trade group.
The head of a major cryptocurrency exchange will not comply with the New York attorney general's request for information.
"The resource diversion for this production is massive. This is going to completely blow up our roadmap!" Kraken co-founder and CEO Jesse Powell said Wednesday on Twitter.
"Then I realized we made the wise decision to get the hell out of New York three years ago and that we can dodge this bullet," Powell said. "Ordinarily, we're happy to help government understand our business, however, this is not the way to go about it."
Schneiderman's office asked 13 cryptocurrency exchanges on Tuesday to complete a questionnaire by May 1 to share details on areas such as ownership, fees, trading suspensions and money laundering.
Powell said the last time exchanges complied with New York's request for information, they were encumbered with the BitLicense. "Kraken left New York because New York is hostile to crypto and this 'questionnaire' we received today proves that New York is not only hostile to crypto, it is hostile to business," he said. - CNBC
Stablecoins are their own category of cryptocurrency. They're designed to maintain a set peg, and avoid the volatility inherent to cryptocurrencies. Unsurprisingly, the most common peg is US$1.
There have been three distinct generations of stablecoin so far, with new developments in distributed ledger technology and economic theory spurring new coins.
The third generation is getting increasingly crowded and complex. This genre of coins is focused strongly on economic theory, to create stablecoin systems without any outside collateral. Basis is one of these coins, along with others like Havven and USDX. These cryptocurrencies are essentially designed to be self-sustaining economic systems, which can expand and contract as needed just like a central bank issued currency. Except in the case of these coins, the expansion and contraction is controlled by an algorithm, rather than by a central authority. - Finder
GOLD MINING output in China fell almost 3% in the first 3 months of 2018 compared with the same period last year, according to new data.
That extends the 6% annual drop recorded in 2017 according to the latest statistics from government-backed body the China Gold Association.
The world's No.1 gold-mining nation produced 98.2 tonnes in the first quarter, the CGA said down from over 101 tonnes a year earlier.- Bullion Vault
Peter Cecchini, chief market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, calls it “the most important thing to have a clear idea about now.” Billionaire fund manager Bill Gross says we’re rapidly approaching a point at which the trend will induce an economic slowdown. Others claim it’s only natural, with the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates in the face of stubbornly low inflation.
No matter which theory of flattening you subscribe to, the world’s biggest bond market is sending a signal that traders can’t ignore. The longer the trend continues, the more likely its effects could spread to bank earnings and the real economy, while at the same time it would limit the Fed’s ability to respond when these risks emerge. - Bloomberg
The second quarter expects to see another gold rally pushed by strong physical demand and the weaker US dollar, according to Boris Mikanikrezai, precious and base metals strategist at Metal Bulletin.
“The resilience of gold prices in spite of the substantial wave of speculative selling since mid-March (~71 tones, corresponding to a 17 percent drop in net long spec positions) is encouraging insofar as it suggests the presence of buying pressure elsewhere in the market, e.g. physical demand,” the analyst wrote in his weekly report for Seeking Alpha.
According to Mikanikrezai, exchange-traded fund (ETF) buying interest for gold is at its strongest since September 2017. “Once bullish speculative sentiment toward gold resumes, I expect a strong price reaction. I have a long position in IAU (iShares Gold Trust), expecting a fresh 2018 high in Q2,” the strategist said.
The industry expert sees a weaker dollar and lower US real rates in the coming months on the back of three main drivers, with the US Federal Reserve the primary driver. Mikanikrezai expects “a dovish hiking cycle” in the next few months based on “[the] Federal Open Market Committee’s patience to see inflation moving back first toward its target of two percent.”
Inflation is seen as the second driver pushing gold higher, with an expansionary path projected to move further, boosted by strong oil and a tight labor market. The third boosting element for the yellow metal is the US deficit rising due to this year’s fiscal stimulus. – Russia Today