Friday, July 14, 2017

Gold up 1% and Silver 2% following economic data showing more retail spending declines and probable recession

On July 14 the latest report was published regarding retail sales for the month of June, and in nearly all instances the data was both negative, and lower than analyst's expectations.

This is not the data the Fed was looking for: after the 4th consecutive miss in CPI data, moments ago the Census Bureau also reported June retail sales which was unexpectedly poor, missing across the board once again, and judging by the surge in bonds, suggests that the Fed's rate hike intentions and narrative is now on indefinite hold.
The details, as shown below, missed in every category: 
  • Retail sales down -0.2%, Exp. +0.2% after falling 0.1% in May
  • Retail ex-autos -0.2%, Exp. +0.2%
  • Retail sales ex-autos and gas -0.1%, Exp. 0.4%
  • Retail sales control group -0.1%, Exp. +0.3%
Furthermore, the steep disappointment in the control group, suggests that Q2 GDP estimates are about to be revised sharply lower. - Zerohedge
In response, gold and silver both moved higher by 1 and 2% respectively, and the dollar fell 40 bps to 95.22 and its lowest level since January of 2015.

Gold Chart:

Silver Chart:

Dollar Chart:


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