Thursday, August 27, 2015

Is the ‘flight to safety’ in treasuries really the result of Fed mopping up China’s dollar dump?

Over the past two weeks we have seen the U.S. 10 year treasury roller coaster from a level of 2.2% on Aug. 17, to a low of 1.95 a week later.  Yet since that time the 10 year has moved back above the ‘Mendoza line’ to its current position of 2.12%.  And of course, the common response in the mainstream media to this drop in yield and spike in buying was due to a ‘flight to safety’ as traders exited the equity markets and moved into bonds.

But when you look at the entirety of the markets, and especially in relation to how U.S. bonds are affected by global economies that hold treasuries as dollar reserves, something interesting begins to emerge, and perhaps this time the old standby of a ‘flight to safety’ is really the Fed buying massive amounts of bonds to mop up what China is dumping as they work to put a tourniquet on their own economy.


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