No wonder the U.S. is so desperate to retake Crime as it is quickly becoming the go-to spot for nations to avoid sanctions

12:56 PM crimea, economic sanctions, russia, trade, turkey, ukraine coup No Comments

Just as political correctness has destroyed the truth about the colonization of South Africa in the 17th century, so too have liberal historians falsified the history about Russia's ownership of the Crimean Peninsula.

Crimea was part of Russia from 1783, when the Tsarist Empire annexed it a decade after defeating Ottoman forces in the Battle of Kozludzha, until 1954, when the Soviet government transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics (RSFSR) to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR).

In fact the only reason that the Crimea's administration was given over to the Soviet controlled Ukraine in 1954 was because the newly appointed Premier Nikita Krushchev was from there.  But even with this being a matter for debate, historical documents show that the legality of ownership was not handed over to Ukraine by 'Russia', but only its administration.

The fact, however, is that the Crimea, historically and linguistically, is Russian. At the time of the handover, a purely administrative affair when no one could ever imagine the dramatic collapse of the Soviet Union, it is certain that the authorities in Moscow could never have imagined the possible repercussions of their political and administrative decision.

In other words, Crimea has been a Russian protectorate since the 18th century when they seized it from the Ottoman Turks.  And if anyone today wants to dispute this, perhaps they should go back and re-read their Tennyson and the Charge of the Light Brigade.

Fast forward to today...

When the U.S., along with foreign intelligence services helped fund and enact the Ukraine coup, their goal was to be able to put NATO forces on the border of Russia, while also interfering with their oil shipments through the country into Europe.  However Russian President Vladimir Putin saw this unfolding and quickly engineered a freedom movement in Crimea which led them to vote for re-annexation by Russia.

Actions by both sides in the Ukraine conflict eventually led Washington to respond with an economic sanction war against Russia, and also in pressuring EU countries to do the same.  However the biggest loser in this economic war to date has been Europe, but who has also been slowly changing course by siding with Putin and his allies in areas such as the Nordstream pipeline, and in trade.

It is in this course change that makes Crimea such as an important geographical and geopolitical spot since not only has Europe been using the Peninsula to conduct sanction free trade with Moscow, but Turkey is also now coming on board to use the location as a way to avoid their own economic war instituted by the U.S.

The Crimean peninsula is ready to launch a ferry service to the Turkish Black Sea coast. 

“Negotiations with the freight-shipping agents have been carried out. The Crimean ports involved in the Turkey-Crimea-Turkey ferry line will be announced soon,” said CEO of Crimean Sea Ports Aleksey Volkov. The line will be opened this fall, he added. 

“Ports and services are ready, comfortable conditions for the forthcoming cooperation are provided, we are waiting for the partners’ decision and signing the agreement,” Volkov told TASS news agency. 

The ferry will be used for cargo this year, and passenger traffic will begin in 2019, he said. The Crimean peninsula will deliver meat to Turkey, while the latter will ship fruits and vegetables. - Russia Today

It is ironic that the very region that led to the U.S. imposing economic sanctions and starting an economic war against Russia is now the same place which is allowing other nations to bypass their own sanctions in trade, commerce, and banking.  And perhaps this is why most world chess champions today are from Russian stock, since even when they play politics instead of chess it is like a Grandmaster playing against a child.

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Step three of current Housing Bubble burst event taking shape as foreclosures begin to climb

12:11 PM burst, foreclosures, home prices, home sales, housing bubble, subprime No Comments

Like in 2007, there are three signals or steps which indicate that the Fed induced Housing Bubble is bursting.  The first of course is that across the board, hosing sales have started to decline in areas that had the largest growth.

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell to an eight-month low in June and data for the prior month was revised sharply down, the latest indications that the housing market was slowing down. 

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday new home sales dropped 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 631,000 units last month, the lowest level since October 2017. May's sales pace was revised down to 666,000 units from the previously reported 689,000 units. - CNBC

The second step is that home prices begin to fall precipitously from their all-time highs.

Manhattan real estate had its worst second quarter since the financial crisis, with prices and sales dropping and inventory rising, according to a new report.

And the third step or indicator for a Housing Bubble pop is when homeowners start to lose their homes through foreclosure.

One month ago we discussed why according to the recent data, the "Housing Market Headed For "Broadest Slowdown In Years." Fast forward to today, when we received the latest confirmation that the US housing market appears to have recently hit a downward inflection point: according to the just released July 2018 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released by ATTOM Data Solutions, foreclosure starts in July increased by 1% from a year ago — the first year-over-year increase following 36 consecutive months of decreases. 

Foreclosures rose from a year ago in 96 of the 219 metropolitan statistical areas, or 44% of the markets analyzed in the report; 33 of those areas posted their third straight monthly increase. A total of 30,187 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process for the first time in July, up 1 percent from the previous month and while the increase was less than 1% from a year ago, it marked the first annual increase in exactly 3 years. - Zerohedge

The current housing bubble is different than the one from a decade ago because new home building is way down this time, and escalating prices came from limited inventories in the used home market.  However what isn't different is that both Fannie Mae and the banks changed their lending standards midway through the bubble and have been once again allowing 3% or less down, and in some cases, little validation of income.

ie... return of subprime.

The signals we are seeing here in 2018 are the same ones we saw back in 2006, a full year before the Housing Bubble officially imploded.  And all that remains now is whether the Fed is going to try to keep it going by changing course in their interest rate policies, or instead watch history repeat itself in a public that is now more in debt than they were at the time of the Financial Crash.

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Shotgun Economics guest appearance on Rogue News 21 Aug. 2018

10:39 AM bitcoin, economics, finance, gold, interest rates, interview, rogue money, rogue news, shotguneconomics No Comments

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Shotgun Economics update for August 20 2018 - Financial Markets and Economic Wrapup

2:11 PM crime, dollar, fed, guns, iran, jackson hole, petrodollar, shotguneconomics, stocks, turkey, violence No Comments

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Cryptocurrency sentiment has fallen so low that porn companies are willing to give it away if you watch their videos

10:35 AM cryptocurrency, porn, pornhub, token, tube8, vice coin, videos No Comments

As the cryptocurrency phenomenon continues to implode into what one analyst calls an 'extinction level event', more and more gimmicks are appearing in the hopes of to enticing the public to keep buying their tokens.

One such scheme is coming from a mid-level porn operation which is now offering viewers of their products and videos free cryptocurrency in the form of the Vice Coin.

Tube8, an adult entertainment platform, is adopting blockchain and tokenization technologies in order to reward visitors with cryptocurrency for watching videos on their website. 

To effect this process, the Pornhub subsidiary is partnering with blockchain platform Vice Industry Token(VIT) for the total tokenization of the website. This is a collaboration that will make it possible for users to get paid for engaging in activities on the Tube8 platform, such as streaming and interacting with videos. The partnership was first reported by TheNextWeb. 

The development when launched by the end of 2018, will put the entire Tube8 platform on the blockchain. It will also establish Tube8 and the first adult entertainment site to adopt token-based rewards and payment for website visitors. - CCN

 Vice Coin: The ultimate 'Happy Meal' toy for adult consumers.

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After dumping the U.S.dollar in trade agreements, Iran now sets its sights on disconnecting its oil production from the Petrodollar

9:16 AM china, dollar, economic sanctions, iran, opec, petrodollar, reserve currency, russia, swift No Comments

While oil sales are not the sole foundation upholding the dollar as the global reserve currency, its use as the primary medium of exchange for the world's energy industry is extremely important.  And this is why nations like China, Russia, and others have sought to use this Achilles Heel to hurt the U.S. by transitioning away from the Petrodollar and into more bi-lateral trade agreements.

The fact that Washington prefers to use the Petrodollar as both a means of financial and foreign policy power has made global confidence in the reserve currency more and more tenuous over the past decade.  And because of this, several countries have created their own alternative systems such as the AIIB and the Yuan-Denominated Oil market to provide nations hit with economic sanctions an alternative to the dollar and to SWIFT that wasn't available just four years ago.

China and Russia have already made serious headway over the past two years into the Middle East, and with OPEC nations looking to disband themselves from the Petrodollar yoke.  And on Aug. 19, the newest one to appear very amenable to ditching the Petrodollar is none other than Iran.

The EU previously pledged to resist US sanctions on Tehran by implementing legislation allowing European businesses not to comply with restrictive US measures against the Islamic Republic, introduced after Washington's withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Iran's Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri has expressed hope that "European countries can meet their commitments" under the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
"But even if they cannot, we are seeking solutions to sell our oil and transfer its revenues," Jahangiri was quoted by Iran's state-run news agency IRNA as saying. – Sputnik News

Perhaps more than at any other time in history, economic warfare has supplanted military warfare as the method of choice for empires seeking to hold onto their power and authority.  But in doing so, they have facilitated the creation of their own destruction since the only thing right now propping up America is its ability to force the rest of the world to use their currency.

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A strange dichotomy: Gun deaths increase in areas with concealed carry but total number of violent crimes diminish

8:14 AM ccw, deterrence, force, gun deaths, guns, murders, police, victim, violent crimes 1 Comment

Just as many police departments have sought to find new weapons which offer a less lethal alternative to a firearm in their daily interactions with the public, so too does that same public purchase varying degrees of protection dependent upon their needs, and will to use them.  And perhaps what is most interesting is that as the police began to 'downgrade' their weapons of choice, their use of force has increased throughout the country.

Ironically when you look at violence from the public side versus law enforcement, it is almost the exact opposite.  By this we mean that as people upgraded their protection of choice to lethal ones such as firearms, the number of gun deaths have increased, but the overall number of violent crimes has lessened.

After 2014, the murder rate began to climb with the rate of CCW holders, however an increase in violent crimes was comparatively muted:

The bottom line... guns and conceal carry permits held by citizens do not stop people from killing others, but they do create the one thing the individuals want from owning a firearm... deterrence from potential violence and the ability to not be a helpless victim.

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Shotgun Economics update for August 17 2018 - Financial Markets and Economic Wrapup

4:34 PM china, dollar, economics, finance, gold, gold price, trade wars No Comments

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If corporations are providing billions to fledgling Cannabis companies now, imagine how much money will go into industry when it becomes legal for banks

12:29 PM banks, beer, cannabis, capital, industry, legalization No Comments

The growing legalization of cannabis in states around the country is leading the U.S. to perhaps one day experience a revolution, and the potential for ground floor growth in an industry that will encompass agriculture, medicine, cuisine, and even alcoholic beverages just to name a few.

However because the Federal government has been apathetic in pushing forth full legalization, and most banks and venture capitalists have been extremely hesitant in providing capital to grow this industry in the U.S., nations like Canada are running away with cannabis expansion where even beer companies are willing to provide billions of dollars in capital to grab their share of the 'roadside weed'.

Despite falling short on quarterly earnings expectations, Canadian-based Canopy Growth, the world's highest valued marijuana stock, skyrocketed on Wednesday after the maker of Corona beer invested $5 billion Canadian, which is nearly $4 billion U.S. 

The giant injection of cash from Constellation Brands is the largest strategic investment in the cannabis market to date, and comes at a time when alcohol companies are making large ventures into the industry. 

"We're going to spend that money to be around the globe," Canopy Growth CEO Bruce Linton told CityNews on Thursday. - NPR

In part it is the lack of foresight, and the corruption of bought and paid for legislators in Washington that is keeping America from rebuilding their economy in new industries such as cannabis.  Instead President Trump is trying to 'Make America Great Again' by focusing on old manufacturing industries such as steel and automobiles and forgetting that the largest industry outside of technology is Big Pharma.  But to break this paradigm, the government needs to open up the financial sector to cannabis investment, and help direct capital into the economy rather than its continued use in the financialization of Wall Street.

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U.S. Treasury bond scheme perfect when the buyer can simply print money out of nothing to scoop them up, and does not care at all about profit

10:39 AM bond yield, bonds, central banks, china, debt, fed, profit, scheme, trade war, treasuries No Comments

With Russia, Turkey, and now Japan all dumping their Treasuries (dollar reserves), one of the biggest questions haunting Wall Street is, who exactly are buying these bonds to help keep yields down?

We raise this query in light of discussions that are now occurring among analysts for not if China will start dumping their estimated $1.3 trillion worth of dollar reserves in an effort to both protect their currency, and to harm the U.S. in the ongoing trade war, but when.

I often read that China may retaliate against US trade sanctions by further decreasing their US Treasury holdings, sending Treasury yields significantly higher, thus blowing out US deficit spending on interest payments.  Trouble is, Chinese Treasury holdings peaked in 2014 (on an annualized basis) and have been declining since.  The Chinese have not only ceased accumulating US Treasury debt, despite continued record trade surplus' with the US resulting in significant dollar surplus', but have been decreasing their holdings.  All this, according to the Treasury International Capital (TIC) system. 

But this postulation that the Chinese could wound the US via selling a portion (or all) of its Treasury holdings (as Russia recently did) is submarined by the recent actions of the Federal Reserve.  I say this based on the magnitudes greater accumulation and subsequent dumping of specific maturities of US Treasury debt done by the Federal Reserve. 

The Federal Reserve accumulated almost $800 billion in 7 to 10 year US Treasury debt (red line, chart below) from 2009 to 2013, and then subsequently dumped $600 billion from early 2014 through the most present August 2018 data.  And the impact on the 10 year yield (blue shaded area, chart below)...essentially zero.  Yes, while the Fed rolled off and/or sold off 7 to 10 year holdings, they were busy buying short term debt.  But this still meant someone had to step up in duration and buy all that longer duration debt the Fed no longer wanted. - Economica

Central banks across the board have been buying sovereign bonds going back to the original days of Quantitative Easing 1 (QE1), with the three most public entities being the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and of course, the ECB.  But with most of these institution's balance sheets having skyrocketed at least 500% or more higher than they were at the time of the 2008 financial collapse, how exactly could they afford to buy more if nations holding these bonds began to sell them?

Perhaps this is one of the primary reasons why the Fed chose to remove its Live balance sheet accounting recently, which had been monitoring in real time their supposed 'tightening' of their balance sheet over the past year.  Because if they are telling the markets that they are doing one thing, and then behind the scenes doing something else, it would destroy investor sentiment in their ability to manage the system, and result in helping to accelerate market forces such as inflation and higher yields.

In short, Bernie Madoff would blush at the farce that is now the US Treasury market (further manipulating all downstream interest rate sensitive markets). A little lie or meddling led to more lying and more meddling...and suddenly the free market no longer exists. It should be clear that a buyer without profit motive is intervening in the Treasury market to maintain a bid and sustain continued low rates on US debt...all this because America has matured but those in control still want to synthetically maintain growth rates (hello China) via unrestrained debt issuance.

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